為達最佳瀏覽效果,建議使用 Chrome、Firefox 或 Microsoft Edge 的瀏覽器。

請至Edge官網下載 請至FireFox官網下載 請至Google官網下載
晴時多雲

限制級
您即將進入之新聞內容 需滿18歲 方可瀏覽。
根據「電腦網路內容分級處理辦法」修正條文第六條第三款規定,已於網站首頁或各該限制級網頁,依台灣網站分級推廣基金會規定作標示。 台灣網站分級推廣基金會(TICRF)網站:http://www.ticrf.org.tw

《TAIPEI TIMES》Chinese readying for war would be obvious: analyst

The national flags of Taiwan and China are displayed alongside military airplanes in an illustration created on April 9 last year.
Photo: Reuters

The national flags of Taiwan and China are displayed alongside military airplanes in an illustration created on April 9 last year. Photo: Reuters

2022/10/06 03:00

‘RELIABLE INDICATORS’: The former CIA analyst said activity preceding a potential invasion would include production of munitions, a mobilization and a blood drive

By Kayleigh Madjar / Staff writer

There would be clear indications if Beijing were planning to attack Taiwan due to the scale of the preparations required, most of which have not yet been observed, a former CIA analyst said on Monday.

As cross-strait tensions rise, US analysts have been floating a few impending dates for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, ranging from 2027 to as soon as Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election.

However, John Culver, a former analyst and manager of East Asian security, economic and foreign policy at the CIA, said that a full Chinese mobilization would leave “reliable indications” that conflict was coming.

Preparations “almost certainly would not be subtle, at least to the US intelligence community, and probably not to Taiwan and other Western observers,” Culver wrote for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank.

At least a year before an invasion, production of key munitions would need to ramp up, considering their widespread use in modern warfare, Culver said.

Beijing would also take “visible steps” to protect its economy and military beyond its current limited efforts to achieve self-sufficiency and counter US financial pressure, he wrote.

Shorter-term measures would include stronger cross-border capital controls, rapid repatriation of assets abroad, stockpiling supplies, suspending key exports and more, he said.

If a 2024 attack were planned, Beijing would already be psychologically preparing its citizens for austerity and casualties, but no such measures have been observed, Culver said.

“It seems plausible, therefore, that if the American intelligence community saw some of that happening, they would right now be releasing that information publicly, just as they did almost four months before Russia invaded Ukraine. They would not just be leaking it to one news outlet,” he wrote.

Within the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, a comprehensive stop loss would be implemented six to 12 months in advance of a conflict, followed by a halt to regular training to perform maintenance and expand capacity for resupply and repairs, he said.

Preparations beyond those seen in exercises would intensify in the Eastern and Southern Theater Commands opposite Taiwan, including public blood drives, while troops in other contested regions would need bolstering for fears of chain-reaction warfare, he said.

Then, three to four months before a conflict, a national mobilization would be observed, Culver said.

“These would all be public actions, reported in Chinese national and provincial media and quickly detected by Western government and private analysts,” Culver added.

However, the Chinese Communist Party understands that an invasion would likely be lengthy and damaging, shifting the basis for its legitimacy from economic growth to “near-exclusive focus on nationalism,” he wrote.

A full-scale invasion is also not a given, as Beijing might choose a combination of economic, legal, informational, military and other pressures to force Taiwan to the negotiating table, he said.

Yet if China “decides to fight a war of choice over Taiwan, strategic surprise would be a casualty of the sheer scale of the undertaking,” Culver wrote.

“Any invasion of Taiwan will not be secret for months prior to Beijing’s initiation of hostilities. It would be a national, all-of-regime undertaking for a war potentially lasting years,” he added.

新聞來源:TAIPEI TIMES

不用抽 不用搶 現在用APP看新聞 保證天天中獎  點我下載APP  按我看活動辦法

焦點今日熱門
看更多!請加入自由時報粉絲團

網友回應

載入中
此網頁已閒置超過5分鐘,請點擊透明黑底或右下角 X 鈕。