離開
進入《TAIPEI TIMES》Governor forecasts stable GDP growth next year
Chinese National Association of Industry and Commerce chairman Thomas Wu, center right, speaks as central bank Governor Yang Chin-long, center left, looks on at the trade group’s board meeting in Taipei yesterday. Photo: Huang Tzu-hsun, Taipei Times
By Crystal Hsu / Staff reporter
Taiwan’s economy would maintain stable growth next year, with inflation easing to below 2 percent, allowing the central bank to set its monetary policy without taking cues from other nations, central bank Governor Yang Chin-long （楊金龍） said yesterday.
Speaking at the monthly gathering of the Chinese National Association of Industry and Commerce （工商協進會）, Yang said that the nation’s GDP growth would likely cool from 3.5 percent this year to 2.8 percent next year, citing a slowdown in exports, private investment and consumer spending as the reasons.
Consumer prices would subside below the 2 percent level, rendering drastic interest rate hikes unnecessary, he said.
Taiwan is a small and open economy that is heavily dependent on foreign trade and must therefore consider exchange and interest rate stability when making monetary policy decisions, the governor said.
The nation need not follow the US, a large economy where interest rates sit atop its monetary policy decisions, Yang said.
The US Federal Reserve board consists of full-time directors, who failed to properly manage the subprime mortgage crisis, which escalated into the global financial storm of 2008, Yang said, adding that the Fed recently failed to take timely action to prevent inflation from hitting 40-year highs of 8.5 percent.
The series of developments fueled criticism of groupthink against Fed members, the governor said.
Likewise, Japan’s policy board is stacked with full-time directors, who have failed to solve its longstanding deflation problem, he said.
The yen has weakened 20 percent so far this year, as the Bank of Japan stands by its loose monetary policy and widens the interest gap with the US dollar, Yang said, raising concerns that a weak yen would affect the export competitiveness of neighboring countries.
By contrast, policy boards in the UK, Singapore and Taiwan are composed of both full-time and part-time directors, who have proved more effective in achieving policy stability, he said.
Major central banks jumped on interest rate hikes to fight inflation and would tighten more drastically if consumer prices fail to ease, Yang said, adding that these practices raise funding costs and put pressure on economic activity.
The likelihood of a recession in the US is rising, especially if the Fed presses ahead with steep rate hikes, which would be unfavorable to Taiwan’s exports, Yang said.
新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES
