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進入《TAIPEI TIMES》 US unlikely to change its strategy on China: analyst
Taiwanese newspapers from Sunday and yesterday reporting Joe Biden winning the US presidential election are pictured in Taipei yesterday. Photo: EPA-EFE
BREATHING ROOM: Beijing likely sees Biden’s election as an opportunity to reset its relations with the US, and end Trump policies, such as trade restrictions, an analyst said
By Yang Chun-hui and William Hetherington / Staff reporter, with staff writer
While US president-elect Joe Biden has not yet clearly defined his strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, his administration is unlikely to deviate significantly from the current administration’s stance on China, an analyst said yesterday.
Taiwan think tank consultant Lai I-chung （賴怡忠） made the comment at a forum in Taipei on the international impact of the outcome of the US presidential election.
Biden is likely to take a tougher stance on China than former US president Barack Obama did, but is unlikely to be as tough on China as US President Donald Trump, Lai said.
While Trump adopted a highly confrontational and ideologically resistant posture with China, Biden would likely pursue a cooperative approach, and seek a “competitive relationship that could be controlled,” he said.
Biden is also likely to maintain warmer relations with Taiwan than Obama, and Taiwan-US relations under Biden would improve, but not at such an accelerated rate as they have under Trump, he said.
“The US’ regional strategy under Trump was embraced by Japan, Australia, India and other countries, but so far Biden has not brought up the Indo-Pacific region,” Lai said.
However, political leadership under Biden is likely to weaken considerably, and if the Republican Party retains a majority in the US Senate, it would likely block major policy changes proposed by the Democratic Party, he said.
Therefore, US strategy in the Indo-Pacific is unlikely to undergo any major change, he added.
“Although, just like under Obama, if the Biden administration does not have a regional policy framework in place from the start, it is likely to handle Asia-Pacific issues on a per-issue basis,” he added.
National Defense University professor Ma Chen-kun （馬振坤） said at the forum that China could continue its military activity in and around the Taiwan Strait during a Biden presidency.
On whether regional stability in East Asia and in the South China Sea could be achieved, “the ball is in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party,” he said.
Tensions in the Asia-Pacific region started in 2013 when China began expanding in the South China Sea, and both the Obama and Trump administrations responded by adjusting the US’ regional policy, he said.
In the run-up to Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20, China is likely to seek negotiations with the US using Taiwan as a pawn, and would attempt to limit Taiwan’s space to maneuver, Ma said.
Beijing would also continue to pressure the US to halt arms sales to Taiwan, as it said after the last sale that it would make a “necessary and appropriate response,” he said, adding that China intends to send Taiwan a clear message that its claims over the nation would be unaffected by the outcome of the US presidential election.
Also speaking at the forum, Cross-Strait Policy Association secretary-general Wang Chih-sheng （王智盛） said that Beijing likely saw the new US administration as an opportunity for renewed US-China relations, which would give it “breathing room.”
Although antagonism between the countries would continue, Beijing would likely seek the abolishment of trade barriers introduced by the Trump administration, as well as an end to Washington’s strategy of attempting to restrict China’s international space, he said.
Beijing would also likely negotiate with Biden’s administration over issues related to Taiwan, he said.
新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES
