《TAIPEI TIMES》 PRC would face huge odds: expert

By Chen Yu-fu and Jonathan Chin / Staff reporter, with staff writer

China would face daunting military challenges if it were to invade Taiwan, but Beijing’s resolve should not be underestimated, a Taiwanese security expert said yesterday.

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Chieh Chung （揭仲）, an associate professor of strategic studies at Tamkang University, made the remarks at a conference held by the Taipei Forum, citing non-classified documents from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army （PLA） and Chinese researchers.

A war against Taiwan would require a massive logistical buildup that would almost certainly be detected, costing the PLA the element of surprise, Chieh said.

The PLA believes it needs hundreds of thousands of troops, 30 million tonnes of supplies and 5.8 million tonnes of fuel to defeat Taiwan, he said, citing internal Chinese military documents.

Transportation of troops and supplies — involving 2,800 sorties of rolling stock, 1 million motor vehicle sorties, 7,800 shipping sorties, and 2,000 cargo flights — would be virtually impossible to conceal, he said.

The PLA deems Taiwan to possess formidable advanced warning systems capable of conducting all-weather, full-spectrum surveillance of China, including by receiving help from foreign strategic reconnaissance assets, Chieh said.

Given the immense logistical requirements and the lack of surprise, a Chinese expert has warned that the PLA support system would be at risk of being paralyzed by Taiwan’s long-range missiles, Chieh said.

In addition, PLA amphibious assault troops would face intense defensive fire with a 70km range, he said.

The most vulnerable window for the Chinese forces would be when they separate from the protection of the fleet on landing craft — a process that would take 4 hours, 40 minutes, giving defenders plenty of time to strike, he said.

As the PLA cannot rely on surprise, it increasingly believes that an attack must be conducted swiftly, with reforms emphasizing army groups and brigades should be able to prepare for combat with 24 hours and four hours of warning respectively, Chieh said.

The Chinese military’s plan is to attain this capability in 2025 to 2035, by which time it would boast a fleet of five or six aircraft carriers, nine to 22 Type-075 amphibious assault ships and 250 heavy cargo planes, up from two carriers, one Type-075 ship and 50 planes today, he said.

These measures would substantially improve the PLA’s ability to engage in a short and decisive conflict, which could perhaps change China’s calculus and nudge it toward war, he said.

For Beijing, going to war with Taiwan is a political decision that involves more than the balance of military force, and it might initiate conflict without having confidence in victory, he said.

“Should China feel desperate, it may feel that it has nothing to lose,” he said.

In addition, plans by Taiwan’s navy to assemble in a remote stretch of the western Pacific to avoid the PLA’s opening salvos might not be realistic due to the growing obsolescence of the fleet’s air defense capabilities, he said, adding that it would risk being wiped out by a saturation attack.

新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES