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進入《TAIPEI TIMES》 NDC projects population drop to 15m by 2070
People cross a street in Taipei’s Zhongshan District on Jan. 10. Photo: CNA
By Wu Hsin-tien and Lery Hiciano / Staff reporter, with staff writer
Taiwan’s population could fall below 15 million by 2070, suggesting that issues with the nation’s aging population and declining birthrate would not improve, the National Development Council （NDC） said in its latest population projection released yesterday.
The council publishes its population projections every two years using household registration data, with this year being the first that it included a survey of experts to help model more accurate fertility trends.
Taiwan’s aging population has already started to affect all aspects of society, the council said, adding that it would continue to collaborate with ministries to address demographic issues.
According to the latest projections, if each woman only has one child over the course of her lifetime, the short-term projections would remain in line with estimates.
Long-term, the consequences of an aging society would become increasingly severe, it said.
Taiwan is not alone in this.
About one-quarter of countries’ populations are expected to decline this year, including Taiwan, China, Japan and South Korea, the council said.
Taiwan’s population could drop from 23.4 million this year to 14.97 million by 2070, a decline of 8.4 million people, it said.
Broken down by age group, there is a projected decline of 1.71 million in the zero-to-14 age group, a decline of 9.2 million in the 15-to-64 working-age population and an increase of 2.48 million for those aged 65 or older, it said.
By next year, Taiwan is expected to be a “super-aged society,” meaning that 20 percent of the population is 65 or older, it added.
In March, the NDC announced that six of Taiwan’s 22 administrative regions were already “super-aged.”
As of this year, 40 countries and regions globally fit the criteria of “super-aged societies,” including Japan, Germany and France, the NDC said.
Taiwan’s demographic dividend — the economic benefit of a large population of workers relative to dependents, such as children or elderly family members — is projected to end by 2028, when the proportion of people in the working-age category is expected to drop below two-thirds of the population, it said.
Due to the combination of increased life expectancies and declining birthrates, the share of the population that is 65 or older is expected to rise from 19.2 percent to 46.5 percent in 2070, while the median age is to increase to 62.4 from 45.1, it said.
Additionally, the ratio of 3.6 working-age people to each elderly person would decline to one-to-one, it said.
新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES
