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進入《TAIPEI TIMES 焦點》Economoc index hits three-year high
NO RECOVERY YET: Despite the rosy scores of monitoring indicators, the ‘green’ signal was a result of a low base level, not of economic recovery, an expert said
By Camaron Kao / Staff reporter
The score of economic monitoring indicators rose to its highest level in about three years, suggesting that the country’s economy is on track for a steady growth, the National Development Council said yesterday.
The indicators score rose four points to 29 last month, from 25 points the previous month, on the back of higher year-on-year growth in stock prices, industrial production, exports and sales of trade and food services, according to a council report issued yesterday.
As a result, the council’s index of monitoring indicators flashed “green” for the third month last month, the report showed.
The council uses a five-color spectrum to categorize the nation’s economic health, with “blue” signaling recession, “green” steady growth and “red” overheating, while “yellow-blue” indicates a transition between recession and growth, and “yellow-red” represents a transition between growth and overheating.
“The score rising last month was not because of one single factor, but because of multiple improvements in many economic aspects, which is a clear sign of economic improvement,” council Deputy Minister Chen Chien-liang （陳建良）, said at a press conference yesterday.
Chen said the signal is likely to remain “green” for this month, given current economic conditions.
However, Chen said he does not expect the signal to turn “yellow-red” in the second half of this year.
“Taiwan’s economy is more likely to recover at its current pace for a while, before it goes to a higher level of growth,” Chen said.
Chen said GDP growth is likely to increase to 3 percent this year, higher than the latest forecast of 2.98 percent given by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics on Friday last week.
The index of leading economic indicators, which is used to gauge the nation’s short-term economic outlook, posted its 20th consecutive increase to 101.31 points last month, up 0.18 percent from 101.13 points a month ago, according to the council.
The index of coincident indicators, which reflects monthly economic conditions, reported its ninth consecutive increase last month to 101.07 points, up 0.25 percent from 100.82 points a month earlier, the council added.
Gordon Sun （孫明德）, director of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research’s （TIER, 台灣經濟研究院） economic forecasting center, said the “green” signal should not be interpreted as pointing to economic recovery, but as the result of a low base level.
A more obvious economic improvement for the nation is likely to come in the third quarter, which is the peak season for exports, Sun said.
新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES
