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進入《TAIPEI TIMES》 Taiwan’s student numbers plunging, report says
Teachers greet students at Songshan Elementary School in Taipei on the first day of the new school semester on Feb. 13 last year. Photo: Fang Pin-chao, Taipei Times
BIRTHRATE ISSUE: By 2039, the number of elementary-school students is expected to drop by 456,000 to 779,000, while there would only be 421,000 senior-high students
By Yang Mien-chieh / Staff reporter
If the number of elementary-school students in Taiwan drops by about 29,000 each year, the nation would have fewer than 1 million elementary-school students six years from now, the Ministry of Education said in a report.
The number of students at all levels of education are declining, with the number of elementary-school students dropping by about 29,000 per year, the ministry said in its 2024-2039 student number estimation report.
Aside from effects such as the Chinese zodiac on childbirth, the report showed that student numbers at elementary schools, junior-high schools, senior-high schools and universities are dropping.
There are about 1.235 million elementary-school students, but that figure would decline to 955,000 in the 2029 school year and 779,000 in the 2039 school year, the report said.
There are about 546,000 junior-high students, but due to the increase in births in the Years of the Dragon and the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Republic of China （ROC） in 2011, the number would increase to about 622,000 in the 2026 school year, it said.
However, the number of junior-high students is expected to decline by about 8,900 each year after that, dropping to about 404,000 in the 2029 school year.
There are about 600,000 senior-high students, but the figure is expected to drop to 549,000 in the 2026 school year.
Also affected by the Years of the Dragon and the ROC 100th anniversary year, the number of senior-high students is expected to increase to about 625,000 in the 2029 school year, but would then continue to decline by about 12,000 people per year to 421,000 in the 2039 school year.
The number of university graduates is predicted to drop by 2,600 every year over the next 17 years, falling below 190,000 in the next school year, and to 155,000 in the 2031 school year, affected by the Year of the Tiger.
However, due to the Year of the Dragon, the number is expected to slightly increase to 177,000 in the 2033 school year, but drop to 161,000 in the 2039 school year.
新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES
