離開
進入《TAIPEI TIMES》 Slowed demand spurs economic risk
People walk in Taipei’s Xinyi District yesterday. Photo: CNA
SLUGGISH EXPORTS: The trade outlook for the rest of this year has worsened, with export demand dropping for the first time since 2020, officials said yesterday
/ Bloomberg
Taiwan’s economy expanded faster than expected last quarter as an easing in COVID-19 restrictions helped spur spending and offset sliding global demand for its exports.
GDP grew 4.1 percent in the July-to-September period from a year earlier, the Directorate-General of Budget Accounting and Statistics said yesterday, much higher than the 3.2 percent growth expected by economists in a Bloomberg survey.
That was the strongest expansion since the final three months of last year.
Officials attributed the increase to a rise in domestic demand, boosted in part by easing COVID-19 restrictions.
“The surprise was coming from private consumption, which accelerated strongly from 2.9 percent to 7.5 percent” on the recovery from a COVID-19 slump, government support and a low base of comparison, said Michelle Lam, greater China economist at Societe Generale SA.
The broader picture for Taiwan is mixed, though. The numbers do not reflect the entirety of a downturn that began weighing on trade last month. Although it outperformed economist expectations, the growth rate is weaker than an official government estimate from August of a 4.71 percent expansion for the quarter.
The official miss was “due to sluggish exports performance from a worse-than-expected weakening in demand,” Wu Pei-hsuan （吳佩璇）, a senior executive officer at the National Statistics Bureau, told reporters at a briefing.
Taiwanese officials have warned that the trade outlook for the rest of the year is grim after overseas shipments dropped last month for the first time since 2020.
Exports and investments slowed, as expected, due to weak global demand, especially for tech goods as work from home demand normalizes,” Lam said. “The challenging tech demand outlook will continue to weigh on exports and investments, while geopolitical tensions could add further downside risks to the latter.”
Taiwan faces an number of global challenges, including high global inflation that is contributing to the slump in demand that has dented exports and weighed on manufacturing output. China’s pursuit of “zero COVID-19” has snarled trade with a critical economic partner, while Russia’s war in Ukraine and rising geopolitical tensions between the US and China involving Taiwan have further muddled the picture.
The decline in exports last month ended a two-year period of stellar trade performance.
Officials cautioned that overseas shipments could continue to struggle through the rest of this year as demand in China and the rest of the world is sluggish, and the slowdown has begun weighing on businesses in Taiwan, with industrial production unexpectedly dropping last month as demand for manufactured goods weakened.
US technology restrictions on China have added to risks for Taiwan, as the nation’s economy and trade is heavily reliant on exporting semiconductors.
Officials have stressed a need to diversify trade with other economies, while China and Hong Kong remain a top destination for Taiwan’s exports.
Economists expect Taiwan’s economic growth to reach 3.2 percent this year before slowing to 2.6 percent next year, which would be the worst performance since 2016. Officials yesterday said that this year’s GDP could rise 3.6 percent from last year based on the third-quarter data.
Raymond Yeung （楊宇霆）, chief economist for greater China at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, said yesterday’s number would still offer another reason for the central bank to raise interest rates when it meets in December.
“However, this should be the last hike in the current tightening cycle as the growth outlook becomes more uncertain,” he added.
新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES
