《TAIPEI TIMES》 TIER raises 2024 GDP forecast to 3.85％

GROWTH: TSMC increased its projected revenue growth for this year to more than 25 percent, citing stronger-than-expected demand for AI devices and smartphones

By Crystal Hsu / Staff reporter

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The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research （TIER, 台灣經濟研究院） yesterday raised its forecast for Taiwan’s GDP growth this year from 3.29 percent to 3.85 percent, as exports and private investment recovered faster than it predicted three months ago.

The Taipei-based think tank also expects that Taiwan would see a 8.19 percent increase in exports this year, better than the 7.55 percent it projected in April, as US technology giants spent more money on artificial intelligence （AI） infrastructure and development.

“There will be more AI servers going forward, but it remains to be seen if the momentum would extend to personal computers, smartphones and other consumer electronic gadgets,” TIER economist Gordon Sun （孫明德） said.

Taiwan is home to major suppliers of high-end chips, servers, storage, memory and other devices used in AI tools and solutions.

Exports, the main growth driver, rebounded to increase by 11.4 percent in the first six months and the uptrend would sustain through the second half though the pace would slow due to higher base levels ahead, the Ministry of Finance has said.

Imports, a critical gauge of capital equipment and input material purchases to meet export needs, might rise by 7.29 percent, up from 6.64 percent, the TIER said.

The upward revision came after corporates indicated a stronger interest in acquiring capital equipment to upgrade their technology and expand capacity, Sun said.

Chip giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co （TSMC, 台積電） last week raised its planned capital expenditure to a range of US$30 billion to US$32 billion, up from a range of US$28 billion to US$32 billion.

The world’s largest contract chipmaker further increased its projected revenue growth for this year to more than 25 percent, citing stronger-than-expected demand for AI devices and premium smartphones.

“The releases of next-generation smartphones in September will shed light on whether the AI boom is spreading and sustainable,” Sun said, adding that AI-linked business opportunities would be very limited and benefit a few.

In a related development, the business sentiment gauge among local manufacturers was 98.45 last month, down 2.15 points from one month earlier and snapping six months of gains, the TIER said in a separate report.

The number of firms with positive views rose by 6.2 percentage points to 32.1 percent, but firms with a negative outlook rose by 7.9 percentage points to 23 percent, it said.

Although electronics suppliers are optimistic about their business prospects, makers of chemical, textile and leather products expect business to weaken and producers of steel, metal and machinery products see flat growth, the TIER said.

Business sentiment among service providers ticked up by 0.72 points to 99.21, rising for four consecutive months, as hospitality operators, financial service providers and investors benefited from TAIEX rallies, it said.

The sense of wealth inflation would likely have evaporated this month as a result of rapid and deep share price corrections.

The business confidence measure rose by 3.29 points to 113.04 for construction firms and real-estate brokers, it found, as the government sped up public works projects while housing transactions slowed by 11.5 percent in the six special municipalities due to fewer working days.

新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES