《TAIPEI TIMES》 Evertrust forecasts up to 23％ drop in housing deals

NOT BUDGING: The economic slowdown has given buyers reason to expect price concessions, but sellers are holding firm due to inflation and monetary tightening

By Crystal Hsu / Staff reporter

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Evertrust Rehouse Co （永慶房屋）, Taiwan’s largest property broker by number of offices, expects up to a 23 percent annual decline in housing transactions in the first half of this year, as its first-quarter results are worse than expected so far, high-ranking officials said yesterday.

While buying interest has picked up slightly from a quarter earlier, most buyers are hesitant to close deals due to expectations that prices will decline amid financial and economic woes, Evertrust general manager Yeh Ling-chi （葉凌棋） told a news conference in Taipei.

Property deals for this year are likely to total 132,000 to 140,000 units by June — a retreat of 18 to 23 percent from the same period last year, Yeh said.

The conservative forecast came after transactions nationwide in the first two months of the year slumped 28.8 percent annually to 37,048 units, he said, adding that the retreat grew to 29.4 percent in Taipei, New Taipei City, Taoyuan, Hsinchu City, Taichung, Tainan and Kaohsiung.

“An economic slowdown at home and abroad fueled expectations of price concessions, but sellers generally refused to concede, thereby slowing transactions,” Yeh said, adding that recent bank collapses in the US and Europe have encouraged caution and patience.

However, inflation and continued monetary tightening have given sellers reason to hold firm, Evertrust’s quarterly survey showed.

The poll found that 40 percent of respondents were expecting price declines, down 6 percentage points from three months earlier, while 31 percent had a neutral view.

That is because things become more expensive in times of inflation and interest rate hikes, Evertrust research manager Daniel Chen （陳賜傑） said.

About 64 percent of respondents expected the central bank to raise interest rates this year to curb inflation and account for the difference in interest rates between Taiwan and the US, Chen said.

A rapid recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic among retailers and restaurants has bolstered the occupancy rates of storefronts and dining spaces, he said.

Of the survey’s respondents, 64 percent expected vacancy rates to drop, while 74 percent expressed an interest in resuming social gatherings and eating out, Chen said.

He said 86 percent supported the government’s ban on the transfer of presale house purchase agreements, saying that the practice would help limit property speculation.

Fifty percent of people said the ban would not affect their plans to buy presale housing, he said.

新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES