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進入《TAIPEI TIMES 焦點》 Tsai still leads if Soong enters race, DPP survey shows
THE SOONG FACTOR: A one-on-one election would be preferable for the DPP because it would be easier to handle the campaign strategy, DPP analysts said
By Chen Hui-ping and Jake Chung / Staff reporter, with staff writer
Democratic Progressive Party （DPP） presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen （蔡英文） holds the lead in popular support over People First Party （PFP） Chairman James Soong （宋楚瑜）, with more than 45 percent support to Soong’s 30.1 percent, if the two ran against each other in January’s presidential election, the DPP said yesterday, citing the latest results of an internal poll.
Soong on Tuesday said that he would consider making a bid for presidency if the public deemed him capable.
According to the DPP’s internal poll, Tsai led with 53 percent in a one-on-one presidential election against Chinese Nationalist Party （KMT） presidential hopeful Hung Hsiu-chu （洪秀柱）, who garnered 30.9 percent.
If all three were to run for president, 45.4 percent of voters would vote for Tsai, 22 percent for Hung and 21.4 percent for Soong, the DPP’s internal poll found.
The poll asked respondents to assess their own cross-strait leanings and each candidate or potential candidate’s cross-strait policy on a scale of zero to 10, with unification being zero and independence being 10, the party said.
The score averaged 6.3, with Tsai receiving 6.9, Hung 3.5 and Soong 4.5, the DPP said, adding that Tsai’s score came closest to the average.
The score indicates that public opinion on cross-strait relations is trending toward neutral, with a slight slant toward pro-independence, the DPP said, adding that Tsai’s stance came closest to the public’s expectations.
When asked which candidate’s cross-strait policies came closest to their own stance, 44.6 percent chose Tsai, 19.5 percent Hung and 19.6 percent Soong.
DPP analysts said that Soong was popular among supporters of both parties and that if he announces a bid for the presidency, he could take votes away from both the KMT and the DPP.
A one-on-one election is preferable for the DPP because it would be easier to handle the tempo and pace of the campaign strategy, the analysts said, adding that if there were three candidates, election decisions would become much more complicated because the party would have to consider the possibility of its two adversaries focusing on the DPP instead of each other.
Tsai would have a more than 50 percent chance of winning if she went up against Hung in a one-on-one election, but her chances would drop if Soong weighed in with a bid, the analysts said.
新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES
