《TAIPEI TIMES》 Warmer winter forecast: CWA

EL NINO EFFECT: This is forecast to persist until spring next year before the weather patterns gradually return to normal in the summer, an official said

By Shelley Shan / Staff reporter

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People can expect a slightly more humid and warmer winter due to the effect of El Nino, the Central Weather Administration （CWA） said yesterday.

El Nino is forecast to persist until spring next year, and the weather would gradually return to normal patterns in summer, CWA weather forecast center director Chen Yi-liang （陳怡良） told a news conference in Taipei.

“Historical data show that winters in El Nino years tend to be warmer with slightly more precipitation,” Chen said.

“After reviewing forecast simulations based on our models and those of other countries, we conclude that average temperatures from December to February next year would be between normal and warmer, while average rainfall would be normal to slightly higher,” he said.

While temperatures next month and in January are forecast to drop, they would be slightly higher than the average, he said.

Rainfall in January and February would also be slightly higher than average, he said.

Although a warmer winter is forecast, people should still beware of health hazards caused by low temperatures, as cold waves or cold air masses occur frequently in winter, he said.

Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon is expected to rise again tomorrow, with cloudy skies and showers forecast for eastern Taiwan and north of Taoyuan, CWA weather specialist Wu Wan-hua （伍婉華） said, adding that sunny skies are forecast for the rest of the nation.

The monsoon, which is forecast to affect the nation until Sunday, would cause a more than 10oC difference in daytime and nighttime temperatures, Wu said.

The lowest temperatures are forecast to occur between Friday night and early Saturday morning, with the lows in Kinmen and Lienchiang counties potentially dipping to 13oC, she said.

Lows in northern and northeastern regions could slide to 15oC to 16oC, and 18oC and 19oC in other regions, she added.

The CWA also highlighted significant weather events that occurred in the fall.

The average temperature recorded at ground-based weather observation stations from September to Sunday was 25.7oC, higher than the seasonal average of 25.12oC, making it the fourth-warmest fall in Taiwan’s meteorological history, the agency said.

The warmest fall occurred in 2017, with the average temperature reaching 26.2oC, it said.

The average accumulated rainfall this fall was 549.3mm, which was close to the seasonal average of 562.85mm, it said.

However, the average accumulated rainfall this month was only 35.2mm, the fifth-lowest since 1951.

The lowest average accumulated rainfall in November — 18.6mm — was recorded in 1983, the agency said.

Meanwhile, only four tropical storms or typhoons were formed in the northwest Pacific Ocean, much fewer than the fall average of 10.87.

It was also the lowest number of typhoons recorded in the fall since 1958, the CWA said.

新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES