《TAIPEI TIMES》 Business climate gauge ‘green’ for fourth month

By Crystal Hsu / Staff reporter

The government’s business climate monitor last month signaled “green” for the fourth straight month as the nation’s economic recovery held firm, thanks to robust demand for both tech and non-tech products, the National Development Council said yesterday.

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The gauge gained two points to 30, the highest in nine-and-a-half years, and was set to climb higher this month, the council said.

“The latest data suggest that the recovery is not only stable, but will gain further traction,” council research director Wu Ming-huei （吳明蕙） told a media briefing in Taipei.

The council uses a five-color system to portray the nation’s economic state, with “green” indicating steady growth, “red” suggesting overheating and “blue” signaling a recession. Dual colors mean it is in transition.

The gauge is only two points away from the boom values of 32 to 37, aided by better manufacturing, restaurant and retail sales, the council said.

The remaining constituents stayed in a healthy zone.

Wu said that the monitor might signal “yellow-red” this month, as there is cause for pessimism, based on the trends of all economic bellwethers.

Demand for 5G wireless communication and new technology applications remained strong, while non-tech products showed signs of rebounding, explaining why most sectors reported an upturn in business, Wu said.

The annual “Singles’ Day” shopping season that culminated on Nov. 11 helped boost retail sales in Taiwan, she said.

The index of leading indicators, which aims to forecast the economic situation for the next six months, increased 1.41 percent to 107.45, as all sub-indices registered positive cyclical movements, the report said.

That suggests that recovery is broad-based, rather than being limited to tech sectors as previously, Wu said.

The index of coincident indicators, which reflects the current economic state, gained 1.16 percent to 104.21, also drawing support from all sub-indices, the report showed.

Despite the improvement, the COVID-19 pandemic would continue to pose uncertainty for the global economy next year, Wu said.

If the pandemic escalates in Europe and the US, Taiwan cannot stay immune given its heavy dependence on exports, she added.

Separately yesterday, the council set its economic growth target for Taiwan next year at 3.8 percent to 4.2 percent, driven mainly by growth in external demand, private consumption and domestic investment.

The high end of the council’s growth target is just more than the 3.83 percent the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics forecast on Nov. 27.

The council also expects the nation’s GDP per capita next year to be between US$30,038 and US$30,145, the consumer price index to rise by 1 to 1.5 percent and the unemployment rate to be 3.6 to 3.8 percent, according to a statement on its Web site.

新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES