《TAIPEI TIMES 焦點》 CWB may issue alert for typhoon

FUJIWHARA ABSENT: The twin typhoons Goni and Atsani may not orbit each other, but their influence on conditions makes their forecasting more difficult

By Shelley Shan / Staff reporter

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The Central Weather Bureau （CWB） yesterday said it could issue a sea alert for Typhoon Goni today, adding that the storm has the potential to strengthen.

Information from the bureau showed that the center of the typhoon was 1,150km southeast of Oluanpi （鵝鑾鼻） as of 2pm. It was moving west at 20kph, with the radius of the storm reaching 180km. Winds near the center of the storm topped 173kph, with gusts reaching 209kph.

Goni is forecast to turn northward tomorrow and move offshore along the east coast. The outer edge of the storm is forecast to reach the coast.

The bureau said the sea alert could be issued some time between tonight and tomorrow morning, adding that it could issue a land alert for east coast areas, depending on the angle at which the typhoon turns northward.

The bureau said it is to activate the Dropwindsonde Observation for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region （DOTSTAR） today to gather key data about Goni.

The project, jointly run by the bureau, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Taiwan University and Aerospace Industrial Development Corp, is the only project in Asia that uses aircraft to monitor typhoons.

An aircraft is to fly at an altitude of about 4,877m to observe Goni from key areas along its predicted path, the bureau said.

Statistics show that DOTSTAR can reduce the margin of error for 72-hour typhoon forecasts by about 6 percent.

Elsewhere, Typhoon Atsani, which is moving toward Japan, has strengthened, reports showed.

Meteorologist Daniel Wu （吳德榮） said that aside from high-pressure systems, Atsani is another factor that could affect Goni’s path.

“Even though these two typhoons might not show the Fujiwhara effect [in which typhoons can orbit each other], Atsani might affect the development of Pacific high-pressure systems, which could in turn affect the atmospheric circumstances surrounding Goni,” Wu said. “Goni also affects the strength of Pacific high-pressure systems. Add to that changes to weather systems in middle latitudes, the factors affecting Goni’s movement are very complicated.”

Typhoon Soudelor, which caused severe damage earlier this month, was only affected by high-pressure systems, making it relatively simple to forecast, Wu said.

新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES