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進入《TAIPEI TIMES 焦點》 Government cuts GDP forecast again
Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics （DGBAS） Minister Chu Tzer-ming announces a new GDP estimate for the year in Taipei yesterday. Photo: Cheng Chi-fang, Taipei Times
By Crystal Hsu / Staff reporter
For the second time this year, the government yesterday cut its forecast for GDP growth, issuing a 1.06 percent prediction after it projected 1.47 percent in February as the global economy slows, boding ill for exports and private investment.
The downward revision came even though the contraction last quarter eased from 0.84 percent forecast last month to 0.68 percent.
“A conservative forecast is warranted given that the world economy might pan out weaker this year compared with last year,” Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics （DGBAS） Minister Chu Tzer-ming （朱澤民） said, citing reports from IHS Global Insight and the IMF.
The lackluster global economy is bound to constrain demand for exports, Chu said.
Exports, which account for 60 percent of the domestic economy, are projected to shrink 3.65 percent annually this year, worse than a 2.78 percent fall forecast previously, the DGBAS said in a report.
That would mean a second consecutive year of contraction, further signs that the focus of technology consumption has shifted from hardware to software, hurting Taiwanese firms in the global supply chain, the report said.
Taiwan is home to the world’s major contract chipmakers, chip designers, laptop and smartphone vendors and critical-component suppliers.
The backdrop would provide firms little motivation to increase investment or expand capacity, apart from a few companies that seek to maintain technology leadership, Chu said.
For the first quarter, external demand pulled GDP down 2.09 percentage points, the report said.
Poor exports are driving firms to avoid raising wages, thereby weakening consumer spending, the report said.
Domestic demand blotted 0.41 percentage points from GDP performance during the January-to-March period, the report said.
Chinese tourist numbers rose 12 percent in the first four months, while travelers from other countries grew 13 percent, DGBAS statistics division head Wu Pei-hsuan （吳佩璇） said.
“Even if Chinese tourist numbers decline going forward, overall tourist numbers might still pick up this year thanks to an increase in travelers from Japan, Southeast Asia and Europe,” Wu said.
The DGBAS said it spotted a flicker of light ahead given recent improvement in industrial procurement, export volume and the number of registered factories.
“There must be reasons for the increase in factories,” Chu said.
新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES
