離開
進入《TAIPEI TIMES 焦點》 Economy likely to weaken: NDC
A woman walks in front of a store window yesterday in Taipei as the National Development Council released the Taiwan Business Indicator for last month, showing the first “blue” reading since September 2012, indicating that economic growth has declined. Photo: CNA
By Crystal Hsu / Staff reporter
The government’s business monitoring system slipped to the “blue” zone last month, affirming that the nation’s export-reliant economy is weakening, with the pace of the slowdown likely to worsen in the current quarter, the National Development Council （NDC） said yesterday.
“Blue” indicates a listless economic state. The council’s announcement is the first time the blue rating has been employed since September 2012 and comes less than a week after the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics lowered its forecast for GDP growth this year.
“The data are worrying, as the impact of poor exports diffused,” council researcher Wu Ming-hui （吳明蕙） said by telephone.
The slowdown has chances of easing in the second half when global economy may see stronger momentum and translate into stronger demand for electronic exports, Wu said.
However, there does not appear to be a strong growth driver on the horizon, such as Apple Inc’s iPhone 6 last year, she said.
It remains to be seen whether wearables, such as the Apple Watch, can make a big splash and as well as business opportunities linked to the Internet of Things, Wu said.
The overall score for the business gauges dropped six points to 16 last month, with all but one indicator displaying downward cyclical movements, the council’s report said.
The leading index, which forecasts economic conditions three to six months ahead, stood at 97.74 last month, a drop of 0.58 percent, down for the 12th straight month, the report said.
The decline is widening, as more manufacturers are cautious about their business prospects, Wu said.
Of the leading subindices, only the semiconductor book-to-bill ratio and share price, as well as money supply readings, stayed in expansion mode, while building permits, export orders and other barometers registered negative moves, the report said.
Exports, which drove 70 percent of GDP growth last quarter, may start to show signs of stabilization next quarter with the advent of the high season for technology products, Wu said, adding that she is not totally confident, given the technology cycle’s volatile nature.
A “blue” light for one month raises alarm, but could prove harmless if the warning lifts in the following months, Wu said.
The DGBAS last week forecast that the contraction in exports may deteriorate to 6.95 percent this quarter, from 4.18 percent last quarter, reducing the chance of rebound any time soon.
The coincident index, which reflects current economic conditions, pared 0.55 percent to 99.29 last month, weighed by disappointing custom-cleared exports, as well as trade and food services, the council report said.
新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES
