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進入《TAIPEI TIMES 焦點》 TIER raises economic growth outlook
FORECASTING: The think tank said it would not speculate where oil prices might go, but said energy savings would allow consumers and firms to spend more elsewhere
By Crystal Hsu / Staff reporter
The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research （TIER, 台灣經濟研究院） yesterday raised its economic growth forecast for this year from the 3.48 percent it predicted in November last year to 3.67 percent, saying that lower crude oil costs may boost consumer spending.
The Taipei-based think tank was the first to upgrade the nation’s GDP growth forecast, but it declined to speculate about the direction of oil prices, saying they have yet to show signs of stabilization.
Crude oil imports amounted to US$32.18 billion last year, accounting for 11.7 percent of overall imports, Ministry of Finance data show.
“The expense would drop significantly this year, allowing companies and households to spend more on other things,” Gordon Sun （孫明德）, director of the institute’s economic forecasting center, told a news conference.
TIER revised its forecast of private consumption to 2.71 percent this year, up 0.24 percentage points from November’s projection, Sun said, adding that domestic demand will replace exports in driving the economy.
Lower oil prices bode well for the nation’s trade surplus too, with exports likely to grow 5.07 percent and imports by 3.76 percent this year, down 0.1 and 1.59 percentage points respectively from November’s forecast, Sun said.
The US is likely to supply the growth momentum, while Europe stalls and China slows, he said.
The benefits of free-falling oil prices will be limited and are not yet evident, TIER said, although other forecasters have released much rosier views.
That is because firms that manufacture petrochemical and alternative energy products may continue to suffer, Sun said.
TIER president David Hong （洪德生） said the government should exercise caution when negotiating long-term crude purchase deals, given that the nation imports more 99 percent of its crude oil needs.
“The government would want to avoid the mistake of buying high as seen in the past,” Hong said.
The weaker oil prices would give central banks in the US and Taiwan more flexibility in setting monetary policy, Hong said.
The central bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the first half, he said, adding the New Taiwan dollar may trade at an average of NT$31.5 against the greenback.
While Taiwan has showed an increasing dependence on China in trade, Europe has exerted a greater impact on the nation’s GDP showing through financial markets, TIER said.
The upcoming quantitative easing operations in the eurozone may drive hot money to Taiwan and strengthen the local bourse and NT dollar, Sun said.
“The trend will lend support to wealth effect and consumer spending,” he said.
Consequently, firms in the manufacturing and services sectors voiced more confidence in their business outlook, TIER said.
Construction-related firms are more pessimistic in the wake of efforts by new mayors to renegotiate contract terms.
新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES
