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進入《TAIPEI TIMES 焦點》 Exchange gives 30-day election forecast
COUNTDOWN: The Exchange of Future Events also looked at the chances that Ma Ying-jeou might step down as KMT chairman if the party lost in Taipei and Taichung
By Wu Po-hsuan and Jake Chung / Staff reporter, with staff writer
Predictions 30 days ahead of the Nov. 29 nine-in-one local elections placed the Chinese Nationalist Party （KMT） in the lead in seven counties and cities, with the Democratic Progressive Party （DPP） in the lead in five others, the Exchange of Future Events, or Xfuture.org, said yesterday.
Independent Taipei mayoral candidate Ko Wen-je （柯文哲）, who has been backed by the DPP, has a 65 percent chance of being elected, Xfuture general manager Anson Hung （洪耀南） said the 30-day countdown report showed.
The organization, formed by academics from the National Chengchi University, Shih Hsin University and Academia Sinica, represents the research basis of “market prediction” and encourages participants to buy and sell contracts on future incidents — in essence predicting the future — based on the idea of a futures exchange.
Tung Chen-yuan （童振源）, chair of Chengchi’s Graduate Institute of Development Studies, said the electronic platform gathers all data and converts them into “stock prices,” adding that data are corrected and updated through reward and punishment systems.
The organization predicted Ko would get 49.4 percent of votes in Taipei, while his main rival, Sean Lien （連勝文） of the KMT, would receive 40.99 percent, although Ko’s chance of being elected, which stood at 65 percent, outstripped Lien’s 36.22 percent.
The exchange said the KMT has a lead in New Taipei City, Hsinchu, Taoyuan County （which is to be upgraded to a special municipality on Dec. 25） and in Miaoli, Taitung, Kinmen and Lienchiang counties, while the DPP has a lead in Yilan, Chiayi and Pingtung counties, as well as Greater Tainan and Greater Kaohisung.
Independent Hualien County commissioner candidate Fu Kun-chi （傅崑萁） appears to be in the lead there.
However, KMT candidates in KMT-governed Taipei, Greater Taichung, Keelung and Penghu County are lagging behind their DPP counterparts in support ratings, Xfuture said, adding that the two main parties appeared even in Changhua and Yunlin counties.
Meanwhile, “stock prices” for President Ma Ying-jeou （馬英九） resigning as KMT chairman are tied directly to the party’s potential losses of Taipei and Greater Taichung, with Ma having a 38.52 percent chance of quitting, while the KMT held a 60.82 chance of losing both elections.
However, if the elections had been held yesterday, and the KMT lost both cities, Ma’s chances of stepping down as party chairman were 63.33 percent.
新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES
