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進入《TAIPEI TIMES 焦點》Academia Sinica lifts growth forecast
GOOD TIMES AHEAD: The academic institution raised its estimate for annual growth from 2.89 percent to 3.31 percent on the back of improved global economic sentiment
By Amy Su / Staff reporter
Academia Sinica yesterday raised its forecast for GDP growth to 3.31 percent for the year from its previous estimate of 2.89 percent — issued in December — making it the most optimistic among the nation’s economic institutes.
The latest forecast is also higher than the 2.98 percent growth predicted by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics （DGBAS） in May.
“We expect economic growth to continue accelerating in the second half of the year, mainly fueled by a remarkable improvement in global economic sentiment,” Academia Sinica economic research fellow Ray Chou （周雨田） told a press conference.
On an annual basis, the economy expanded 3.14 percent in the first quarter and grew 3.04 percent in the second quarter, according to Academia Sinica.
The economy is expected to grow 3.63 percent this quarter and 3.39 percent next quarter from the levels a year earlier, Chou said.
The recovery in the world’s major economies is forecast to boost growth in goods and services exports and imports for the year, with year-on-year forecasts of rises of 4.25 percent and 4.23 percent respectively, the institute said.
Private consumption will remain one of the major drivers, with the institute expecting an upturn of 2.62 percent for the year. Private investment is expected to show a moderate growth of 4.46 percent from last year, given the relatively high base last year and a slowdown in foreign investment, the institute said.
However, public investment should remain sluggish and post a year-on-year contraction for the fourth year, the institute said.
Despite price rises in some daily essential goods and food products, the consumer price index is likely to increase 1.52 percent this year from last year, it added.
However, Chou said that momentum is still not strong enough to return to the level seen before the global financial crisis in 2008, as average GDP growth over the last three years, between 2012 and this year, could only be stronger than the 2007-2009 period at 2.20 percent.
新聞來源：TAIPEI TIMES
